Exclusive: A new poll reveals that U.S. Jews view Trump as more supportive of Israel, while they consider Harris to be better on issues related to the Gaza war.
Antisemitism and the war are significant factors in presidential decision-making, though they rank below concerns about democracy and the economy.
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| People watch the September debate between Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee former President Donald Trump. |
According to a new poll, American Jews believe Vice President Kamala Harris would manage the Israel-Hamas war more effectively than former President Donald Trump, with a preference of 54% to 36%. However, most respondents still view Trump as more supportive of Israelis.
The national poll, carried out for the Forward by CHIP50, an academic consortium of public opinion experts, revealed that 65% of U.S. Jews perceive Trump as primarily supporting Israelis over Palestinians, while 42% believe Harris provides “equal support to both.”
The survey indicated that worries about antisemitism and the war are significantly influencing Jewish voters' choices for president this fall, although other issues, particularly the preservation of democracy and the economy, are of even greater concern.
The poll suggests that Harris may be facing challenges in securing a traditionally Democratic voting bloc, with only 62% of Jewish adults planning to vote for her in November. This figure is notably lower than the support President Joe Biden received in 2020 (77% or 68%, depending on the exit poll) and Hillary Rodham Clinton's Jewish backing in 2016 (around 70% according to two exit polls).
Harris’s support in this survey also trails other recent polls of American Jews. Researchers from CHIP50 noted that this poll, which included 907 Jews aged 18 and older, encompassed individuals who did not vote in 2020, making them less likely to vote this year. If those non-voters are excluded, her support increases to 64%. Moreover, when removing those who were unsure of their choice, Harris’s backing rises to 67% among the remaining respondents.
Jamie Druckman, a political science professor at the University of Rochester and a principal investigator for CHIP50, commented that the non-voters from the last election are significantly impacting her numbers.
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The poll was conducted online from August 30 to October 8, with support from the Knight Election Hub. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3% for the Jewish sample, which is part of a larger survey involving over 27,000 American adults. (Detailed survey methodology can be found on the CHIP50 website.)
Jews make up 2% of the American population and are reliable voters, representing as much as 3% of the electorate in key swing states like Pennsylvania, where approximately 300,000 voted in 2020 (Biden won by 81,660 votes).
In this year’s highly competitive presidential race, campaigns are actively targeting Jewish voters.
In a recent online ad, Democrats accused Trump of endorsing antisemites, citing a speech from last month where he suggested that if he loses, Jews would be to blame. Vice President Kamala Harris’s Jewish husband, Doug Emhoff, along with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, has been assuring Jewish groups of her strong support for Israel and her commitment to fighting antisemitism. Recently, Harris and Emhoff commemorated the victims of the October 7 attack by planting a pomegranate tree at the vice president's residence.
On the other hand, Trump has claimed in multiple speeches that the Hamas attack on October 7 would not have occurred under his presidency and warned that Israel would face dire consequences within two years if Harris wins. He also visited the gravesite of the Lubavitcher Rebbe to mark the anniversary of the attack. His running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, insinuated that Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz over Shapiro was influenced by antisemitism.
With just three weeks until the election, the Forward-CHIP50 poll reveals insights into the priorities of Jewish voters.
Israel and the War :
There appears to be a divide between American Jews' preference for Harris’s approach to the Gaza conflict and their perception that Trump is more supportive of Israel. The poll indicates that 37% of Jewish respondents believe the U.S. should support both Israelis and Palestinians equally, surpassing the 31% who favor mostly supporting Israelis and the 24% who advocate for exclusively backing Israelis. A smaller segment, 6%, thinks U.S. policy should primarily or solely support Palestinians.
Regarding Harris’s stance, 34% of respondents believe she mostly or only supports Israelis, while 65% feel the same about Trump. Conversely, 25% say she primarily or only supports Palestinians, compared to 14% for Trump. Notably, 42% perceive Harris as offering equal support to both groups, compared to 21% for Trump.
David Lazer, a political science and computer science professor at Northeastern University and a principal investigator of CHIP50, suggested that many Jewish voters may feel more aligned with Harris due to her perceived even-handedness in the conflict. Some voters may also support her for her positions on other issues, despite leaning towards Trump on Israel.
Ann Lewis, co-chair of the Democratic Majority for Israel, noted that Harris may not have had as much time to establish herself as a staunch ally of Israel, given her shorter tenure in the national spotlight compared to Trump. She emphasized that many American Jews appreciate Harris’s “calm, serious” demeanor and are skeptical of Trump’s more aggressive rhetoric.
In contrast, Ari Fleischer, former press secretary for George W. Bush, offered a straightforward perspective: partisanship. He pointed out that American Jews are predominantly Democratic, which naturally leads them to express greater support for Harris, despite believing Trump may be stronger on Israel.
Antisemitism and the War as Key Concerns :
The poll reveals that antisemitism and the Israel-Hamas conflict are among the top priorities for Jewish Americans in their presidential choices. When asked to rate these issues on a scale from 1 (“not important at all”) to 10 (“extremely important”), over 70% of American Jews rated the war as an 8, 9, or 10, compared to fewer than 45% of non-Jews.
Regarding antisemitism, 73% of Jewish respondents rated it an 8, 9, or 10, while less than 40% of non-Jews did the same. This highlights a significant gap between the two groups, making antisemitism the issue with the largest disparity in concern.
Two of the 17 issues highlighted in the survey were abortion and crime, alongside immigration and the economy.
For the Jews surveyed, preserving democracy was the top priority, with 79% rating it as an 8, 9, or 10. In contrast, the economy ranked first for non-Jews, with 81% giving it similar high marks. Additionally, 57% of Jews rated democracy a perfect 10, compared to 43% of non-Jews. For Jews, the economy followed closely, with 52% rating it a 10, while 55% of non-Jews did the same.
In a September poll by GBAO Strategies for the Jewish Democratic Council of America, democracy was again the leading concern among American Jews, with 44% naming it as one of their two most important issues in the presidential race; abortion came in second at 28%.
The CHIP50 poll revealed that abortion is also a significant issue for American Jews, with 48% giving it a 10 and 68% rating it an 8, 9, or 10. For non-Jews, those figures were about 10 percentage points lower.
However, the GBAO poll indicated that only 9% of respondents ranked Israel among their top two issues (31% for Orthodox Jews), while 15% cited antisemitism. The Forward-CHIP50 survey approached the topic differently, allowing respondents to rate issues individually, with many topics deemed important.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, home to tens of thousands of Jews and initially a focus for Jewish philanthropy after Russia's 2022 invasion, remains a priority for a majority of Jews: 61% rated it an 8, 9, or 10, compared to 46% of non-Jews.
Regarding the upcoming election, the CHIP50 survey, which has been polling since April 2020, diverges slightly from other recent surveys asking who American Jews would vote for today. A recent GBAO poll showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among Jews 68% to 25%, whereas the CHIP50 survey found her leading 62% to 31%. When excluding respondents who didn’t vote in 2020, GBAO reported Harris with a 72% to 25% lead compared to 67% in the CHIP50 poll.
Support for Trump among Jews appears stable since 2020, with 31% of those surveyed backing him then and planning to do so again. Trump recently claimed to a largely Jewish audience that he has seen polling showing him with 40% support among Jewish voters, suggesting that if he loses, they would bear some blame—a comment many deemed antisemitic.
Ari Fleischer, a former Republican White House official, remarked on the potential impact of any shift of Jewish voters toward the GOP in such a closely contested election, stating, “The only thing that matters is inroads, and Trump is making meaningful inroads into a key Democratic constituency.” He added, “Trump will never win the Jewish vote, but he likely will do better than most Republicans.”
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